BABSON, ROGER W. 1875-1967

PROGNOSTICATOR

Speculator, Forecaster

Roger W. Babson, a market speculator, gained fame as one of the few—including Joseph P. Kennedy—who forecast the market crash in 1929. He is often regarded as the "father" of the long line of market prognosticators, newsletter publishers, and other purveyors of financial information who have flourished over the years.

Symbol

In many ways Babson was symbolic of the extravagant era. He had been around Wall Street for years, but his background was never clear. He claimed to be an educator, philosopher, theologian, statistician, economist, and forecaster; he was clearly something of a con man. His forecasting methods, which involved charts, graphs, intersecting lines, and other hocus-pocus, were mysterious.

Predictions

Earlier in the decade Babson had predicted that if New York governor Alfred E. Smith were elected president in 1928, there would almost certainly be a serious depression, and on 5 September 1929 he noted that "sooner or later a crash is coming, and it may be terrific." When the crash did occur, Babson overnight became a prophet in his own land. Although earlier he had been largely ignored, he now gained a substantial following, and his Babson Institute and School of Management, his lectures, and his newsletters became staples of the financial world.

Source:

Irving Fisher, The Stock Market Crash—and After (New York: Macmillan, 1930).