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NATIONAL POLITICS: 1984 ELECTIONS

Conservative versus Liberal

The 1984 presidential election was unusual in the annals of American politics because the two major-party candidates represented diametrically opposing ideologies. American voters have traditionally preferred middle-of-the-road candidates, and not since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide victory over Barry Goldwater exactly twenty years earlier had a liberal, New Deal Democrat gone up against a truly conservative Republican. In 1984 the results were reversed, with Ronald Reagan winning a second term by decisively defeating Walter Mondale. Reagan had clearly moved the nation to the right during his first term, but his election was widely interpreted as a victory for Reagan the man rather than his conservative policies.

Blurring Political Distinctions

During the campaign each candidate tried to appeal to the broadest possible range of voters by portraying himself as a moderate and his opponent as a dangerous extremist. Despite jokes about his inability to discuss important issues without cue cards and stones about his nodding off during cabinet meetings, Reagan was helped by his likable personality and his ability to project an image of leadership. Even his supporters conceded that Mondale was boring. According to one campaign joke, Reagan might fall asleep during his cabinet meetings, but if Mondale were elected he would put the whole cabinet to sleep.

The Debates

Reagan led Mondale in most polls for all 1984, with the Democratic challenger making significant inroads in the incumbent's level of support only twice: immediately after the Democratic National Convention and after the first televised debate (7 October). In that debate Mondale politely and effectively attacked the president's policy decisions and raised the issue of his competence. Reagan's statements seemed increasingly muddled, and in his closing comments he admitted to being "confused." The media was immediately flooded with questions about whether the oldest president in U.S. history was in fact too old to hold that office. Even the conservative Wall Street Journal observed that his "debate performance invites open speculation on his ability to serve" (9 October). Mondale performed ably, though less spectacularly, in the second debate (21 October), but Reagan came back strong, managing to convince most viewers that he was indeed of sound mind and competent to be president. He also cracked a joke: "I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponent's youth and inexperience." While 75 percent of the people who said they made up their minds on the basis of the debates chose Mondale, only 10 percent of those who cast votes on election day picked their candidate in that way. Most people had made up their minds months ago. Those undecided voters who joined the Mondale camp after the first debate would have probably ended up there by election day anyway. The second debate shored up Reagan's commanding lead.

Election Results. On 6 November Reagan won 58.8 percent of the votes cast by nearly 93 million Americans, 55.3 percent of eligible voters. The turnout was disappointing to Democrats, who had hoped for 100 million on the long-held theory that the bigger the turnout the more votes for Democrats, but the vote was big enough to end a twenty-year decline in voter turnout, which had dropped to 52.6 percent in 1980. Mondale, who got 40.6 percent of the popular vote, won only the District of Columbia and his home state of Minnesota. He wound up with 13 electoral votes to 525 for Reagan. There was widespread speculation about the demise of the New Deal Democratic coalition and the emergence of a new conservative Republican coalition, but later analysis proved both predictions premature. Parts of the New Deal coalition were still evident: Mondale had won the majority of votes cast by unemployed, low-income, and union families. He had also beaten Reagan among African American, Hispanic, Jewish, and urban voters. Yet Reagan had once again attracted away two key elements of that coalition: Catholics and white southerners. He won 55 percent of the Catholic vote and 72 percent of the votes cast by white southerners, taking that region with 63 percent—his largest percentage in any region. He also benefited significantly from an eight-year drift of

Senate	98th Congress	99th Congress	Net Gain/Loss
Democrats	45	47	+2
Republicans	55	53	−2
Independents	0	0	0

House	98th Congress	99th Congress	Net Gain/Loss
Democrats	267	253	−14
Republicans	168	182	+14
Independents	0	0	0

Governors	1982	1984	Net Gain/Loss
Democrats	34*	34	−1
Republicans	16	16	+1
Independents	0	0	0
*Democrats gained one governorship in the 1985 elections.

so-called middle Americans—people of moderate income, blue-collar workers, and high-school graduates—toward the Republican camp, where they joined its traditional coalition of white Protestants, high-income people, and individuals with high-status employment. Yet, as the polls indicated, Reagan had won the election on the basis of personality, not political philosophy. It was also apparent that the nation was entering an era of declining party loyalty. Two out of five voters in 1984 were members of the "baby boom" generation or younger. They were far more likely than their parents to call themselves independents, and they represented a considerable challenge, and promise, to both parties.

Congressional Elections

The results of House and Senate elections were disappointing to both parties. Republicans, who discovered that Reagan had short coat-tails, lost two seats but maintained control in the Senate, which the Democrats had hoped to take away from them. At the same time the Republicans failed to regain control of the House but chipped away part of the Democratic majority there for a net gain of fourteen seats. Of the fourteen Democratic senators up for reelection, thirteen were reelected, and three Democratic House members won Senate seats formerly held by powerful Republicans: In Illinois Rep. Paul Simon edged out Sen. Charles H. Percy, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; in Iowa Rep. Tom Harkin defeated Sen. Roger W. Jepsen; and in Tennessee Rep. Albert Gore Jr. won the seat vacated by Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker. Yet the Democrats failed to upset Republicans in five other states where Republicans had seemed beatable, including North Carolina, where Sen. Jesse Helms narrowly won reelection in a bitter, expensive contest against Gov. James B. Hunt, and Texas, where Phil Gramm, who had resigned his House seat after losing his Democratic committee assignments for voting too often with the Republicans, ran for the Senate as a Republican and won. Other Senate newcomers included Democrat John D. "Jay" Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, Democrat John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the only Republican to defeat a Democratic incumbent.