DISASTERS

Disasters are sudden, large-scale events that result in substantial numbers of deaths and injuries or severe economic losses. Natural disasters, the subject of this article, are disasters that are not precipitated by human agency. A disaster occurs when vulnerable people are severely impacted by a hazard in a way that recovery is unlikely without external aid. Vulnerability is a function of a group's socioeconomic condition; the poor are more vulnerable than the rich.

Deaths and Injuries

According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), a total of 39,073 people were reported killed by disasters in 2001. This figure is lower than the decade's annual average of around 62,000. Earthquakes proved to be the world's deadliest disasters, accounting for over half the year's toll. Over the decade, however, hydrometeorological hazards have claimed 71 percent of all lives lost to disasters.

From 1992–2001, countries of Low Human Development (LHD) have accounted for just one-fifth of the total number of disasters, but over half of all disaster fatalities. On average 13 times more people die per reported disaster in LHD countries than in countries of high human development. In 2001, a total of 170 million people were reported affected by disasters (IFRC 2002).

Economic Losses

In the 10 years ending in 2001, economic losses from natural disasters averaged nearly $580 billion a year. In real terms, this is a 7.7 fold increase in losses from the decade of the 1960s. Because of the relative size of developed-and developing-world incomes, the per capita impact of the economic losses was 20 times greater in the developing countries. According to a 2000 study by the World Bank, between 1990 and 1998, 94 percent of the world's major natural disasters and 97 percent of all natural disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries.

The staggering total of losses in the developing world is a consequence of the vulnerability of low income countries to natural hazards. The cost of disasters to developing countries extends beyond the immediate impact on the poor. Studies indicate that natural disaster losses can eliminate economic growth. "The escalation of severe disaster events triggered by natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters are increasingly posing a substantive threat to both sustainable development and poverty-reduction initiatives" (UN, ISDR, p. 3).

Future Trends

Natural disaster losses are forecast to increase dramatically during the first 50 years of the twenty-first century. The global cost of natural disasters is anticipated to exceed $300 billion annually (in 2000 dollars) by the year 2050–a five-fold increase over the 1990s. Two broad demographic trends directly contribute to the increasing losses from natural hazards in the developing world: the increase in population and the concentration of population in large cities. World population will likely increase by 2 billion persons between 2000 and 2025, and by a further billion by 2050, almost all of it in the developing world. The urban concentration is also rising. In developing countries, more than 40 percent of the population now live in urban areas, a percentage that is projected to reach 57 percent by 2030 (and up to 75 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean). Urbanization increases risk by concentrating people and investments in limited geographic zones. As a result, natural hazards can inflict substantial damage in a very short time. Hurricane Andrew, for example, inflicted $20 billion in damages in a few hours when it struck the Miami, Florida area in 1992.

Large cities are highly vulnerable to natural disasters, more so since substantial proportions of their populations are often poorly housed in fringe settlements. Nearly half the world's largest cities are situated in major earthquake zones or tropical cyclone tracks. Substantial increases in economic losses from disasters are highly probable.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Blakie, Piers, Terry Cannon, Ian Davis, and Ben Wisner. 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People's Vulnerability, and Disasters. Routledge: New York.

Charveriat, Celine. 2000. Natural Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Overview of Risk. Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank.

Freeman, Paul K., Leslie A. Martin, Reinhard Mechler, Koko Warner, and Peter Hausmann.2001. Catastrophes and Development: Integrating Natural Catastrophes into Development Planning, Disaster Risk Management Working Papers Series No. 4. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). 2002. World Disaster Report 2001: Focus on Recovery. Bloomfield, CT: Kumarian Press Inc.

Mitchell, James K., ed. 1999. Crucibles of Hazard: Mega-Cities and Disasters in Transition New York: United Nations University Press.

Munich Reinsurance Company (Munich Re). 2002. Topics: Annual Review: Natural Catastrophes 2001 Munich, Germany: Munich Reinsurance Company.

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). 1999. The State of the World Population 1999. New York: United Nations Population Fund.

World Bank. 2001. World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty. New York: Oxford University Press.

INTERNET RESOURCES.

Bendimerad, Fouad. 2000. Megacities, Megarisk. Disaster Management Facility, World Bank <http://www.worldbank.org/dmf/knowledge/megacities.html>

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). 2002. Natural Disasters and Sustainable Development: Understanding the Links Between Development, Environment and Natural Disasters, Working Paper No. 5 [Revised Edition]. <http://www.unisdr.org>.

United States Bureau of the Census (Census Bureau). 1999. World Population Profile:1998. <http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/wp98001.html/>