Radiological Threat Analysis

Many countries have stocks of radioactive materials arising from nuclear weapon and nuclear power programs. Therefore, there is an ongoing threat of release of significant amounts of radiation into the atmosphere either by accident or by sabotage. Since the World Trade Center attacks of September 11, 2001, fears that terrorists might steal material from a nuclear facility to build a bomb have grown. Experts are now trying to analyze and take precautions to deal with such threats.

Radiological threat analysis starts with assessing and managing the potential dangers of nuclear sites and activities and reducing their vulnerability to accident or attack as far as is possible. Sites where large amounts of material are stored, a nuclear power station, for instance, need to be protected by the police or the military. Security should be tight, but must not interfere with the activities of the site, which may be making a significant contribution to the country's energy supply.

Potential radiological threats are of three kinds. A group may actually steal a nuclear weapon, they may steal radioactive materials or they may attack or sabotage a nuclear installation. There have been no known instances of the first scenario, but plutonium and highly enriched uranium have been known to go missing and may have fallen into the hands of terrorists. There have also been several cases where people have tried to break into nuclear installations but none of them have led to serious harm. Indeed, the perpetrators of the World Trade Center bombing of 1993 threatened to target nuclear installations in a letter to the New York Times. Experts have tried to analyze various scenarios such as the sabotage of vulnerable areas, like the control room or electricity supply, inside nuclear installations. These exercises have led to new approaches to tightening up security.

One important finding that has emerged from forensic radiological threat analysis is that no nuclear installation in the world could currently withstand an air strike. Since September 11, officials consider this fact a significant vulnerability. The special hazards presented by nuclear reprocessing plants have also been highlighted by scientific analysts. Nuclear transport trains, which carry plutonium for hundreds of miles in countries like France, are also potential targets for a radiological threat. Such transportation should be minimized, if not eliminated, wherever possible. The analysts must always keep one step ahead of the terrorists, trying to imagine the worst-case scenario of what they might do and then taking steps to prevent it.