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When Will Races Fully Assimilate


Here's a question that I've puzzled over for some time: how
long will it take different modern-day races and
ethnicities to blend and/or assimilate fully? Reading
through the Old Testament, for example, we see mention of
dozens of ethnicities which no longer exist today:
Babylonians, Assyrians, etc. Of course their descendents
live on, but the Babylonian people no longer exists qua
people. In the modern world there is in many cases an
increasing inter-marriage rate, as well as a breakdown of
racial prejudice at historically impressive speeds. Taking
all this together, how long should we expect it will take
the following ethnicities and races to more-or-less be
fully intermingled and no longer distinguishable? 1. Jews
and non-Jews. I predict that the Jewish people will be
disappear almost entirely qua people in the next 200 years.
A handful of strict Jews may persist, but for the most part
it seems that the rate of intermarriage is sufficiently
high in mixed countries (about 50% in the U.S.) and the
level of prejudice is sufficiently low that the Jew qua
ethnicity is unlikely to continue for too much longer. Of
course, Jews have persisted as an independent culture for
several thousand years, but it is only in the last 1-2
centuries that intermarriage has become so widespread. In a
sense, it seems that anti-Semitism is the woe of Jews but
an important preserver of Judaism as a distinct cultural
identity. 2. Asians and Caucasians. I would predict about
500 more years. Again, in mixed nations the inter-marriage
rate is high and (I think) still growing. The result will
be more of a blending than an absorption. I would expect
that it will take longer both because of the large initial
population, and because of the degree of geographic
isolation. Still, national borders will become less and
less important and travel easier; combined with the
increase in inter- marriage and the decline of
Caucasian-Asian prejudice, my projection is quite
reasonable. 3. Causasians and Hispanics. This one is harder
to predict -- I would say 500-1000 years for full
intermingling. Intermarriage is still on the rise, but the
level of prejudice between the two groups is not clearly
falling. As with Asians, I would think that advances in
transportation and the declining importance of national
borders will break down racial distiction faster than many
would expect. 4. Caucasians and Africans. This one will
probably take the longest for full breakdown -- I give it
1000-2000 years. I believe that inter-marriage, though
rising, remains at low levels; and again, the trend of
prejudice between the two groups is unclear. But the
decline of national borders and the advance of
transportation are going to ultimately eliminate the
distinction, perhaps to the surprise of many alive today.
There are many other combinations to consider -- these are
merely meant to be illustrative. A final question one might
ask is: Is this "abolition of race" a good thing? It seems
clearly so to me. I don't expect war and hatred and
prejudice to disappear when identifiable races and
ethnicities no longer exist, but ONE important factor
contributing to these problems will disappear. It would be
unfortunate if valuable cultural traits disappeared, but
there is no reason why a deracinated humanity could not
pick and choose the best elements of each of the cultures
of the present time. I suppose that many find the prospect
of humanity without ethnic identity to be frightening and
alienating, but I see it as an exhilirating opportunity for
individuals to define themselves as they think best, freed
from the dead hand of the past. It will no longer be
possible to inherit one's identity; it will have to be
chosen for oneself. 


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